In the great present-day money grab known as SPAC promotion, egregious mistakes will be made – such as missing an impending customer defection that could cost ~35% of revenue within two years. A business model that incentivizes promoters to do something – anything – with other people’s money is bound to lead to significant value destruction on occasion. 如果太平洋投资公司连续第四次从私人股本集团手中收购一家企业,情况就更糟了. C’mon, man.

Muddy Waters做空了MultiPlan Corp f/k/a Churchill Capital Corp III的股票和信用. Our key reasons are:

  • MPLN正在失去其最大的客户UnitedHealthcare(“全民健康覆盖”). 全民健康覆盖形成了MPLN的一个竞争对手,它提供了低得多的价格和较少的利益冲突. The competitor is called Naviguard.
  • We understand that by the end of 2022, Naviguard aims to convert all key UHC accounts, which constitute the majority of MPLN’s UHC business.
  • 十大正规网堵平台预计,这种流失和竞争将使2022E的收入减少35%,并使自由现金流杠杆化80%, while net leverage should balloon to more than 8.0x.
  • MPLN was already in financial decline, 该公司的财务报表被设计来掩盖这种现有的恶化状况. We understand that in 2018, MPLN released revenue reserves, dropping them from approximately 30% to 10% of revenue, 十大正规网堵平台认为,在销售萎缩的情况下,MPLN 2018年的息税折旧摊销前利润实现了增长.
  • MPLN的SPAC赞助商曾吹捧卖方是私募股权公司赫尔曼(Hellman) & Friedman (“H&F”), is keeping a significant equity stake. That reasoning seems faulty. We believe that the SPAC was H&F’s last acceptable option to unload MPLN. We understand that H&F已经通过股息(增加了净杠杆)将其投资的很大一部分从桌面上拿走了。.

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